The 13th National Parliamentary Election is knocking at the door. After years of being deprived of free, fair, and peaceful voting rights, citizens across the country are eagerly waiting to exercise their democratic franchise. At the same time, the political landscape is undergoing constant shifts as parties intensify their campaigns on the ground.
Although a significant gap still exists in terms of overall electoral strength, the Jamaat-e-Islami–led 10-party alliance has managed to consolidate its position in several constituencies over the past week. This picture has emerged from a constituency-based pre-election survey conducted by Dhakapress24.com.
According to the survey findings, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is currently leading in 180 parliamentary seats, maintaining a position strong enough to form a single-party majority government. On the other hand, the Jamaat-led 10-party alliance is ahead in 48 seats. The remaining constituencies appear to be heading toward tight contests, which could play a decisive “game-changing” role in the final outcome.
If a significant portion of these swing seats ultimately tilts in favor of the BNP, the party could potentially secure a two-thirds majority in parliament—something not witnessed since the 2001 general election.
The survey provides a detailed analysis of the probable political scenario across the country’s eight administrative divisions. While BNP remains dominant in most divisions, the Jamaat-led alliance has built relatively strong positions in certain regions. At the same time, the presence of BNP rebel candidates and independent contenders has made electoral contests in many seats more complex and unpredictable.
Dhaka Division
In the Dhaka Division, BNP continues to hold a commanding position. Out of the division’s 50 parliamentary seats, BNP is leading in 37 constituencies. A notable feature here is that BNP rebel candidates are ahead in more seats than the Jamaat-led alliance. Rebel BNP candidates are leading in four seats, while the Jamaat alliance is ahead in three and independent candidates in two. The remaining four seats are expected to witness neck-and-neck contests. Analysts believe that the influence of rebel candidates poses a significant challenge for BNP in this politically crucial division.
Chattogram Division
Chattogram remains BNP’s strongest bastion. Of the 58 seats in the division, BNP is leading in 47. The Jamaat-led alliance is ahead in only three seats, while one seat each is currently led by a BNP rebel and an independent candidate. The remaining six seats are projected to be closely contested. Political analysts attribute BNP’s dominance here to its well-organized party structure and a consolidated voter base.
Rangpur Division
The electoral picture in Rangpur is markedly different. Of the division’s 33 seats, the Jamaat-led alliance is leading in 18—making this region its strongest base nationwide. BNP is ahead in 10 seats, while the Jatiya Party is leading in three. Additionally, one seat each is led by a BNP rebel and an independent candidate. Observers point to Jamaat’s longstanding organizational presence and grassroots mobilization as the main reasons behind its strong showing in Rangpur.
Rajshahi Division
Rajshahi Division, which has 39 parliamentary seats, presents a highly competitive landscape. BNP is leading in 21 seats, while the Jamaat-led alliance is ahead in five. However, a striking 13 seats are expected to see intense competition. Analysts suggest that voter preferences in this region could shift dramatically in the final days before polling.
Khulna Division
In Khulna Division, BNP is leading in 17 of the 36 seats. The Jamaat-led alliance has established a strong presence in 12 seats, while BNP rebel candidates are ahead in two. The remaining five seats are projected to be tightly contested. The voting behavior of urban and industrial voters is expected to play a crucial role in determining the final results here.
Mymensingh Division
BNP appears comparatively well-organized in Mymensingh Division. Of the 24 seats, BNP is leading in 17. The Jamaat-led alliance is ahead in two seats, while BNP rebels lead in four. Only one seat is expected to witness a close contest, reflecting BNP’s relatively strong organizational discipline in this region.
Barishal Division
In Barishal Division, BNP maintains a clear advantage, leading in 16 of the 21 seats. The Jamaat-led alliance is ahead in three seats, while a BNP rebel candidate leads in one. Three seats are projected to see fierce competition. The survey indicates that BNP’s long-standing political influence in the southern region remains largely intact.
Sylhet Division
Sylhet emerges as the weakest region for the Jamaat-led alliance. Out of 19 seats, BNP is leading in 15. The Jamaat alliance is ahead in only two seats, while a BNP rebel candidate leads in one. Two constituencies are expected to witness close contests. Overall, Jamaat’s organizational presence in Sylhet appears significantly limited compared to other divisions.
Overall Assessment
A comprehensive analysis of the survey suggests that BNP remains firmly ahead at the national level. However, the Jamaat-led 10-party alliance has demonstrated notable strength in specific regions—particularly Rangpur and parts of Khulna. Simultaneously, the emergence of BNP rebel candidates across multiple divisions has added layers of complexity to the electoral equation.
As election day approaches, the key question dominating political discourse remains whether these early leads and shifting dynamics will translate into actual votes at the ballot box.