Dhaka: Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman has described the upcoming February 12 national election as a “decisive moment” to reclaim the ownership of Bangladesh by its people. He said BNP is firmly committed to ensuring the political and economic empowerment of citizens and pledged wide-ranging reforms and welfare initiatives if elected to power. Tarique Rahman made these remarks on Monday (February 9) in a special address to the nation, where he outlined the party’s election manifesto, assessed the current political situation, and presented BNP’s vision for building a future democratic state.

Tribute to Martyrs and Movement Background

At the beginning of his speech, Tarique Rahman expressed gratitude to Almighty Allah and paid tribute to those who lost their lives during the struggle to restore democracy over the past decade and a half. Referring to the student–mass uprising of 2024, he said more than 1,400 people were martyred during the movement.

“We cannot allow the dreams of the martyrs to go unfulfilled. Our goal is to build a just, secure, and humane Bangladesh envisioned by those who sacrificed their lives,” he said.

Promise of 10 Million Jobs and Unemployment Allowance

Making major announcements for the country’s youth, Tarique Rahman said a BNP-led government would create 10 million new jobs at home and abroad over the next five years. He emphasized the expansion of the IT sector, freelancing, and cottage industries as key drivers of employment.

He also pledged a special financial allowance for educated unemployed graduates, stating that those holding bachelor’s degrees would receive unemployment benefits for six months to one year until they secure jobs.

Women’s Empowerment and “Family Card”

Highlighting the importance of women’s participation in development, Tarique Rahman said women make up half of the country’s population and cannot be excluded from national progress.

BNP plans to introduce a “Family Card” issued in the name of the female head of each household. Under this initiative, low-income families would receive 2,500 taka per month or equivalent food assistance. He also announced plans to establish day-care centers for working women and introduce specialized electric transport services to ensure safe mobility.

“Farmers Card” for Agricultural Support

To protect farmers’ interests, Tarique Rahman announced the introduction of a “Farmers Card”, under which farmers would receive direct financial and technological assistance.

“Saving farmers means saving the country,” he said, adding that fair wages for laborers and safe working conditions would be ensured under a BNP government.

Restoring “Faith in Almighty Allah” in the Constitution

On religious values, Tarique Rahman said the constitutional phrase “absolute trust and faith in Almighty Allah,” originally incorporated by late President Ziaur Rahman, was later removed and would be restored if BNP comes to power.

He also pledged state-sponsored financial honorariums for imams, khatibs, and muezzins to recognize their social contributions.

Plans for Administration and Expatriates

Addressing governance reforms, Tarique Rahman promised to depoliticize the public administration and ensure recruitment based strictly on merit and competence. He said a new pay scale for government employees would be announced in due course.

For expatriate Bangladeshis, he announced the introduction of a “Expatriate Card,” aimed at ensuring dignity and security abroad. The card would help eliminate harassment at airports and provide special facilities for investment in Bangladesh.

Learning From Past Mistakes

In a conciliatory note, Tarique Rahman expressed sincere regret for unintentional mistakes made by BNP in the past. He said the party has learned from its experiences and is committed to building a better future.

“We want to move forward by learning from past mistakes. A BNP government will adopt a zero-tolerance policy against corruption,” he said.

Concluding his address, Tarique Rahman reiterated BNP’s commitment to building an inclusive Bangladesh, stating, “We want to build Bangladesh with everyone.”

Ahead of the upcoming 13th National Parliamentary Election, Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) has released a new nationwide public opinion survey projecting a decisive victory for the BNP-led alliance. According to the survey, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies could secure approximately 208 seats, while the Jamaat-e-Islami–led alliance is projected to win 46 seats.The survey findings were officially unveiled on Monday afternoon at the 3D Seminar Hall of the Krishibid Institution Bangladesh (KIB) in Dhaka. EASD claims this is the largest opinion poll conducted so far ahead of the election, both in terms of geographic coverage and sample size.

Survey Methodology

Presenting the findings, EASD Chief Executive Officer Shamim Haider Talukder said the survey was conducted across all 300 parliamentary constituencies using the Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) method. Data were collected from 41,500 respondents through the digital platform Kobo Toolbox.

The fieldwork was carried out between January 18 and January 31 by 150 trained data collectors. To ensure demographic and regional representation, a total of 2,766 PSUs were selected nationwide. From each PSU, 15 households were systematically chosen, and one eligible respondent from each household was interviewed.

Union areas were considered as clusters for rural regions, while wards were used as clusters in urban areas, ensuring balanced representation of both rural and urban voters and minimizing sampling bias.

Demographic Composition of Respondents

Of the total respondents, 26,560 were male (64 percent) and 14,922 were female (36 percent). Youth participation was significant, with 37.2 percent of respondents aged between 18 and 30 years. Voters aged 31 to 50 years constituted 45.2 percent of the sample, including 27.5 percent aged 31–40 and 17.7 percent aged 41–50.

In terms of occupation, the largest group of respondents were businesspeople (21.9 percent)—including 5 percent large and medium entrepreneurs and 16.9 percent small traders. Participants from agriculture and rural labor sectors accounted for 13.2 percent, while 19.1 percent came from household and informal sectors. Students made up 14.5 percent of the respondents.

Voting Preference and Party Popularity

According to the survey, BNP enjoys overwhelming voter support nationwide. About 66.3 percent of respondents expressed their intention to vote for BNP candidates. Jamaat-e-Islami ranked second with 11.9 percent support. The National Citizen Party (NCP) received 1.7 percent, while the Jatiya Party secured 4 percent, and independent candidates received 2.6 percent voter support.

The survey also highlights strong support for BNP among female voters, with 71.1 percent of women respondents expressing support for the party.

Regionally, BNP-led alliance support was highest in Chattogram (76.8 percent) and Sylhet (75.6 percent). In contrast, the Jamaat-led alliance showed strong performance in Barishal (17.8 percent) and Khulna (18.6 percent). In the northern district of Rangpur, the Jatiya Party received 3 percent voter support.

Seat Projections

Based on constituency-level analysis, the survey projects the following seat distribution:

• BNP-led alliance: 208 seats

• Jamaat-e-Islami–led alliance: 46 seats

• Jatiya Party: 3 seats

• Other parties: 4 seats

• Independent candidates: 17 seats

Additionally, 22 constituencies are expected to witness closely contested races, described as “closed contests” in the survey.

Government Formation Expectations

EASD’s findings indicate that 66.4 percent of respondents believe the BNP-led alliance will form the next government. Similarly, 66.3 percent expressed confidence that BNP candidates would win in their respective constituencies.

The survey also suggests a significant political shift among former Awami League voters. According to Shamim Haider Talukder, 80 percent of respondents who previously voted for the Awami League now intend to vote for BNP. Meanwhile, 15 percent of former Awami League voters expressed support for Jamaat-e-Islami, and the remaining 5 percent favored other political parties.

Preferred Prime Ministerial Candidate

When asked about their preference for the next prime minister, 68 percent of respondents supported BNP Chairperson Tarique Rahman. Fourteen percent favored Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman, while 2 percent supported NCP Convener Nahid Islam. The remaining 16 percent chose not to express any preference.

Discussion Panel

The event was chaired by Kazi Saifuddin Ben Noor, Adviser to EASD. Following the presentation, a panel discussion was held with participation from prominent academics and experts, including:

• Prof. Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, University of Dhaka

• ASM Amanullah, Vice-Chancellor, National University

• Shamsul Alam Selim, Chairman, Department of Government and Politics, Jahangirnagar University

• Prof. Nahreen I. Khan, Jahangirnagar University

• Dr. Toufique Joarder, National University of Singapore

• Mir Nadia Nivin, former member of the Electoral System Reform Commission

Overall, the survey reflects growing public expectation for political change and indicates strong momentum in favor of the BNP-led alliance in the upcoming election.

As the country heads toward the upcoming national parliamentary election, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) nominee SM Jahangir has emerged as an active and visible contender in the Dhaka-18 constituency. Jahangir currently serves as the Joint Convener of BNP Dhaka North Metropolitan Unit and has been carrying out extensive grassroots-level campaigning since the beginning of the election season. During visits to various areas of Dhaka-18, it was observed that SM Jahangir has been going door to door, directly engaging with voters and presenting his political agenda. Local residents say he is a familiar face in the constituency and is widely regarded as a tested grassroots leader with long-standing involvement in local politics. Many voters believe that his current position in the electoral race is relatively strong.

Experience of a Long Political Career

According to party sources, SM Jahangir has been actively involved in BNP politics for decades. Throughout his political career, he has faced repression, legal cases, and imprisonment. Despite these challenges, he has remained loyal to the party and did not step away from political engagement during difficult times.

Local BNP leaders say that even during politically challenging periods, Jahangir maintained close communication with party activists and remained involved in organizational activities. Due to his consistent loyalty and commitment, he is considered a trusted and familiar figure among the party’s central leadership.

Grassroots Outreach and Personal Rapport

One of SM Jahangir’s key strengths in the election campaign appears to be his personal conduct and strong relationship with local residents. Voters describe him as polite, approachable, and well-mannered, qualities that have made him widely acceptable across different segments of the constituency.

Several voters in Dhaka-18 said they have seen Jahangir standing beside people during times of social and personal difficulty. Whether checking on the sick, attending community events, or maintaining personal contact beyond political affiliations, he has built a reputation as an accessible and people-oriented leader.

Electoral Competition and Political Calculations

In Dhaka-18, SM Jahangir’s main rival is Ariful Islam, the candidate of the National Citizen Party (NCP). However, conversations with local voters suggest that Jahangir is currently ahead in the electoral race, at least in terms of visibility, recognition, and grassroots support.

Some voters believe that Jahangir’s long-standing political involvement and continuous presence in the field have given him an edge over his competitors. According to them, familiarity and consistent engagement often play a crucial role in influencing voter decisions.

Political analysts, however, caution that the final outcome will depend on several factors, including voter turnout on election day, the overall political environment, and last-minute campaign dynamics.

Confidence Among Party Activists

Local BNP activists express strong confidence in SM Jahangir’s leadership. They say that throughout his political journey, he has never betrayed the party or its grassroots workers. Even during periods of repression, he did not change his political position, which has further strengthened trust among party members.

A local BNP leader stated, “He endured imprisonment and legal harassment but never abandoned the party. He stood by the activists in difficult times. This is something grassroots workers value deeply.”

Relationship with Central Leadership

Party insiders say that SM Jahangir’s loyalty, organizational experience, and long-term involvement in party activities have earned him recognition among BNP’s senior leadership. His active participation in various organizational programs and his experience in handling responsibilities are seen as factors that have helped strengthen his position in the electoral field.

Voters’ Expectations

Discussions with voters indicate that residents of Dhaka-18 expect their elected representative to focus on local development, civic services, and political stability. Many believe that as a seasoned grassroots politician, SM Jahangir has a clear understanding of the constituency’s problems and priorities.

One voter remarked, “He understands the problems of the area. We have seen him not only during election time but even before. That familiarity matters to us.”

What Lies Ahead

The election in Dhaka-18 has generated noticeable interest among local residents. SM Jahangir continues his door-to-door campaigning, while rival candidates are also intensifying their outreach efforts.

Overall, based on the views of a section of local voters, SM Jahangir appears to be in a relatively strong position at this stage of the campaign. However, as observers note, the final decision rests with the voters on election day, who will ultimately determine the next Member of Parliament for Dhaka-18.