Bangladesh’s political landscape is currently passing through a complex, multidimensional, and highly sensitive phase. With the national parliamentary election scheduled for February 12, political calculations and diplomatic manoeuvring within the country have intensified. These developments are no longer confined to domestic power struggles; rather, they are increasingly intertwined with regional and global political alignments. As a result, political analysts warn that Bangladesh is gradually becoming entangled in a web of international interests and growing diplomatic pressure.
At present, the country’s political parties appear deeply fragmented and politically isolated. On one hand, internal factionalism and leadership crises continue to weaken party structures. On the other, the subtle yet effective involvement of international powers is disrupting the natural course of domestic politics. The role of foreign diplomats and the strategic interests of several states have elevated Bangladesh’s election into an issue of international significance.
One of the country’s major political parties, which remained in power for more than a decade and a half, has faced persistent allegations of eroding political tolerance, democratic norms, and freedom of expression. Both domestic and international observers have accused the party of suppressing dissent, exerting undue control over the electoral system, and misusing administrative authority. Consequently, the party’s image has suffered serious damage at home and abroad. As a result of these long-standing political practices, a section of its top leadership has reportedly fled the country. Numerous cases, including allegations of murder, enforced disappearances, and corruption, have cast serious uncertainty over the party’s political future.
Despite these setbacks, the party has not remained inactive. One influential leader of the party has reportedly been making multifaceted efforts to reorganise and revitalise its political structure. According to sources, there have been attempts to project Saima Wazed Putul as a potential future face of the party. Internal discussions have also reportedly taken place regarding key leadership positions, including who might assume the roles of party president and general secretary.
At present, the senior Awami League leader is said to be staying in Russia. Sources further claim that he is scheduled to hold several rounds of meetings there, aimed at consolidating political support and exploring strategic options for the party’s future direction.
Meanwhile, another major political party, despite remaining outside of power, continues to command significant public support. Various independent surveys and political assessments suggest that, in the event of a free, fair, and inclusive election, a substantial portion of the electorate may vote in its favour. However, the party is grappling with deep internal challenges. Leadership divisions, lack of clarity in policy direction, and the long-term impact of political repression have weakened its organisational capacity. In addition, sustained propaganda by rival political forces has placed the party in a somewhat defensive position. Caught between public expectations, organisational limitations, and mounting pressure from political opponents, the party’s senior leadership is struggling to navigate the current situation.
This party has also maintained regular communication with international diplomatic circles. The positions taken by influential global actors, including the United States and the European Union, regarding Bangladesh’s election are playing a significant role in shaping its political strategy. While foreign pressure on issues such as human rights, electoral transparency, and democratic reform is viewed by some as an opportunity, it simultaneously raises concerns about the growing influence of external actors in the country’s domestic political process.
At the same time, another political party—historically limited in influence but now increasingly assertive in its ambition to come to power—has intensified its international outreach. The party has reportedly established consistent contacts with one African country, two Muslim-majority countries in Asia, as well as a neighbouring state. According to diplomatic analysts, these engagements extend beyond mere political support and are part of broader regional geopolitical calculations. The party appears determined to position itself as an alternative political force, ready to capitalise on the perceived failures of the dominant political players.
In the southern region of the country, a prominent religion-based political party has recently taken a significant strategic decision. Acting on advice from an organisation based in a neighbouring country, the party has withdrawn from previous political alliances and nominated candidates independently. This move has created new political polarisation at the local level. The party, too, aspires to share state power and is seeking tacit support from both domestic and foreign actors. It is leveraging religious sentiment, organisational strength, and regional influence as key political assets.
An analysis of the broader situation makes it clear that Bangladesh’s politics is no longer confined within national boundaries. The strategic interests of major global powers, regional security concerns, trade routes, and geopolitical positioning have collectively turned Bangladesh into a focal point of international attention. Consequently, international considerations have become an unavoidable component of the electoral strategies adopted by all major political parties.
Against this backdrop, the most pressing question remains whether the sovereign will of the Bangladeshi people will be genuinely reflected in the upcoming election. If the electoral process is shaped primarily by international pressure, diplomatic alignments, and behind-the-scenes political compromises, the fundamental principles of democracy risk being undermined. History suggests that political power derived from external influence rarely proves stable or sustainable in the long run.
The forthcoming election represents a critical turning point for Bangladesh. It is not merely about a change of government; it is a defining test for the country’s democratic future, political culture, and international standing. Political parties must look beyond short-term power calculations and prioritise national interests. Failure to do so could push Bangladesh further into becoming a pawn in the strategic games of global powers—an outcome whose ultimate cost would be borne by the country’s ordinary citizens.
When contacted, a senior leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) declined to comment on these issues, stating only that the party leadership remains focused on election preparations. Similarly, a senior leader of Jamaat-e-Islami refrained from making any statement regarding diplomatic polarisation, choosing not to elaborate on the matter.