Ahead of the 13th national parliamentary elections, the latest public opinion survey conducted by the private organization Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) indicates that over 70 percent of voters support the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). In the same survey, 19 percent of respondents expressed support for Jamaat-e-Islami, while the National Citizens’ Party (NCP) received 2.6 percent support. Notably, the NCP has already formed an alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami. On Monday afternoon, January 5, the results were presented at a press briefing held at the KIB Auditorium in Farmgate, Dhaka by EASD CEO Shamim Haider Talukder. According to him, opinions were collected from 20,495 respondents across 300 parliamentary constituencies nationwide. The survey was conducted between December 20, 2025, and January 1, 2026.

The survey asked voters, “Which party will you vote for in the upcoming election?” The responses were as follows:

• BNP: 70%

• Jamaat-e-Islami: 19%

• NCP: 2.6%

• Other parties: 5%

• Will not vote: 0.2%

Another significant aspect of the survey was voters’ perception of government formation. When asked, “Which party do you think will form the next government?,” the results were:

• BNP: 77%

• Jamaat-e-Islami: 17%

• NCP: 1%

When asked, “Who do you think will win the upcoming election?,” respondents answered:

• BNP: 74%

• Jamaat-e-Islami: 18%

• Jatiya Party: Just over 1%

• NCP: 1.7%

A comparison with the previous election shows noticeable changes in voter preferences:

• Awami League: 27% voted or intended to vote

• BNP: 35% voted or intended to vote

• Jamaat-e-Islami: Over 5% voted or intended to vote

This comparison suggests that BNP’s support has increased by approximately 15 percentage points, while Jamaat-e-Islami’s support has grown moderately. The NCP, as an emerging party post the 2024 popular uprising, has a limited voter base at present.

Political Analysis

In Bangladesh’s current political landscape, BNP remains the strongest opposition party. The EASD survey results indicate that voters continue to view BNP as the primary contender and a credible alternative to the ruling party.

While Jamaat-e-Islami has a support level of 19%, its influence remains limited, particularly among urban and educated voters. However, the NCP-Jamaat alliance may slightly expand their voter base in northern regions and certain peripheral areas.

The survey also shows that 5 percent of respondents support other smaller political parties, indicating that a segment of the electorate remains unattached to major parties. These votes could shift as the election draws nearer, depending on campaign activities and political developments.

Electoral Prospects and Voter Sentiment

A key takeaway from the survey is the voters’ expectation regarding government formation. 77 percent believe BNP will form the next government, signaling widespread public confidence in the party’s electoral prospects. Similarly, a majority perceive BNP as the likely winner of the upcoming elections.

Political analysts note that voter enthusiasm and campaign effectiveness will significantly influence the final outcome. A centralized and active campaign by BNP could further consolidate its support base.

Nevertheless, challenges remain. Despite high levels of support, voter awareness, the electoral environment, and socio-economic factors could affect voters’ final decisions.

Survey Methodology and Reliability

EASD conducted the survey through face-to-face interviews and in-person data collection, ensuring representation across all 300 parliamentary constituencies. A total of 20,495 respondents participated in the survey.

The survey period, spanning December 20, 2025, to January 1, 2026, provides a timely snapshot of voter sentiment ahead of the elections. Analysts emphasize that such extensive and scientifically conducted surveys offer a reliable basis for understanding voter attitudes and political trends.

The EASD survey clearly shows that the BNP is likely to secure the highest voter support in the upcoming 13th parliamentary elections. While Jamaat-e-Islami ranks second, the NCP and other smaller parties have limited influence.

Considering voter expectations regarding government formation, participation in the electoral process, and overall political awareness, the dynamics of voter preferences may evolve as the election approaches. However, the current public sentiment positions BNP as the dominant force and most probable victor in the electoral contest.