A new political equation appears to be emerging in the political arena ahead of the 13th National Parliamentary Election. The changing situation has sparked intense discussions among people not only in the capital, Dhaka, but also across districts and upazilas throughout the country. In Dhaka in particular, election-related conversations have become a daily routine. From hotels and restaurants to tea stalls, markets, bus terminals, launch ghats, and even along the streets—debates over potential election outcomes and projected seat numbers are taking place everywhere. Observations from various parts of the capital show that ordinary citizens are actively calculating electoral arithmetic.
Some believe the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) could secure 220 seats on its own. Others estimate the number may exceed 240. In some discussions, projections even range between 250 and 260 seats.
However, discussions are not limited to BNP alone. Jamaat-e-Islami is also at the center of various debates. A section of its supporters claim that the party could win as many as 155 seats and form the government. Others argue that even if forming a government is unlikely, Jamaat may still secure more than 100 seats. Many general voters believe the party could achieve a respectable number of seats. According to them, if Jamaat can play an effective role in parliament, it may strengthen its prospects for forming a government in the future.
At the same time, differing opinions are widely heard in public discussions. Some believe Jamaat could deliver a surprise result, while others argue that nothing can be predicted with certainty before the election. Although these views reflect public observations and political discourse, analysts say such trends in public opinion carry important signals for political parties ahead of the polls.
Religious Support Adds a New Dimension
Several recent political developments have added a new dimension to the electoral discussion. Apart from Jamaat, a number of religion-based organizations, along with some pirs and Islamic scholars, issued a statement on Tuesday expressing support for BNP. This declaration is being viewed as significant in political circles.
In addition, several smaller political parties have publicly called on voters to cast their ballots for the “Sheaf of Paddy,” BNP’s electoral symbol. As a result, discussions about a potential shift in the electoral equation have intensified. Many citizens speculate that beyond Jamaat’s traditional vote bank, some voters may now lean toward BNP. Consequently, the potential seat count reflected in various surveys could increase further in reality—according to such perceptions.
However, a section of political observers cautions that declarations of support and actual vote counts are not the same. Organizational strength at the grassroots level, candidate selection, and voters’ final decisions will ultimately determine the outcome.
Anis’s Analysis in Sutrapur
Anis, a resident of Sutrapur in the capital, said:
“This time the electoral environment feels different. Many parties have openly declared their support. I believe BNP may secure more seats than expected. The number could rise from 240 to even 260.”
According to him, the political coordination and endorsements seen ahead of the election may particularly influence urban voters. He believes a significant portion of city voters may favor change.
Rafique’s View at Sadarghat
At the Sadarghat launch terminal, passenger Rafique shared a similar opinion:
“Except for Jamaat, many parties are now aligning with BNP. Religion-based organizations have also expressed support. This could change the electoral calculations. I think BNP may secure more than 250 seats.”
He added that such support could also influence rural areas, where religious and social factors often play a role in voting decisions.
Expectations Among Jamaat Supporters
Conversations with Jamaat supporters in different parts of the capital suggest they view this election as a significant opportunity for the party. One supporter said:
“Our organization is strong. This time we will secure a notable number of seats. Winning between 100 and 150 seats is not impossible.”
However, some general voters believe that even ensuring a significant parliamentary presence would be a major achievement for Jamaat. Strengthening its political position now could pave the way for bigger ambitions in future elections, they argue.
Northern Perspective from Mohakhali
At Mohakhali Bus Terminal, Rafiqul Islam, who was traveling to Thakurgaon in northern Bangladesh, shared his perspective:
“In the northern region, Jamaat’s organization is strong. They may perform well in several constituencies. However, the overall national picture is still unclear. Since various parties are positioning themselves in favor of BNP, its seat count may increase.”
According to him, several northern constituencies could witness triangular or multi-cornered contests, making it difficult to predict the outcome in advance.
Public Discussion vs. Electoral Reality
Election analysts emphasize that while public opinion trends are important, the final result will depend on several practical factors. These include voter turnout, the personal acceptability of candidates, local organizational strength, law and order during the election period, and last-minute campaigning.
There is also discussion in political circles about possible vote transfers. However, it is difficult to make certain predictions about how specific groups or communities will vote. While endorsements carry political significance, voters’ confidential decisions on election day will ultimately determine the outcome.
Election Fever in the Capital
National politics has now become the primary topic of conversation across the capital. From heated debates among young people at tea stalls to post-office discussions among professionals, and from rickshaw pullers to business owners—everyone is focused on the election.
Beyond seat numbers, voters are also thinking about the stability of the future government, economic conditions, employment opportunities, rising commodity prices, and law and order. Many believe the outcome of this election will play a crucial role in shaping the country’s political trajectory.
What Will Happen in the End?
Overall, speculation over the new political equation surrounding the 13th National Parliamentary Election is at its peak. Some predict 220 seats, others 240, some even 260—and others speak of a possible rise for Jamaat. Regardless of these calculations, the final verdict will rest with the voters.
Until voting and vote counting are completed, nothing can be said with certainty. However, one thing is clear: voter interest and political awareness appear particularly intense this time. Which political equation ultimately proves effective remains to be seen.