Ahead of the upcoming 13th National Parliamentary Election, Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) has released a new nationwide public opinion survey projecting a decisive victory for the BNP-led alliance. According to the survey, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies could secure approximately 208 seats, while the Jamaat-e-Islami–led alliance is projected to win 46 seats.The survey findings were officially unveiled on Monday afternoon at the 3D Seminar Hall of the Krishibid Institution Bangladesh (KIB) in Dhaka. EASD claims this is the largest opinion poll conducted so far ahead of the election, both in terms of geographic coverage and sample size.

Survey Methodology

Presenting the findings, EASD Chief Executive Officer Shamim Haider Talukder said the survey was conducted across all 300 parliamentary constituencies using the Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) method. Data were collected from 41,500 respondents through the digital platform Kobo Toolbox.

The fieldwork was carried out between January 18 and January 31 by 150 trained data collectors. To ensure demographic and regional representation, a total of 2,766 PSUs were selected nationwide. From each PSU, 15 households were systematically chosen, and one eligible respondent from each household was interviewed.

Union areas were considered as clusters for rural regions, while wards were used as clusters in urban areas, ensuring balanced representation of both rural and urban voters and minimizing sampling bias.

Demographic Composition of Respondents

Of the total respondents, 26,560 were male (64 percent) and 14,922 were female (36 percent). Youth participation was significant, with 37.2 percent of respondents aged between 18 and 30 years. Voters aged 31 to 50 years constituted 45.2 percent of the sample, including 27.5 percent aged 31–40 and 17.7 percent aged 41–50.

In terms of occupation, the largest group of respondents were businesspeople (21.9 percent)—including 5 percent large and medium entrepreneurs and 16.9 percent small traders. Participants from agriculture and rural labor sectors accounted for 13.2 percent, while 19.1 percent came from household and informal sectors. Students made up 14.5 percent of the respondents.

Voting Preference and Party Popularity

According to the survey, BNP enjoys overwhelming voter support nationwide. About 66.3 percent of respondents expressed their intention to vote for BNP candidates. Jamaat-e-Islami ranked second with 11.9 percent support. The National Citizen Party (NCP) received 1.7 percent, while the Jatiya Party secured 4 percent, and independent candidates received 2.6 percent voter support.

The survey also highlights strong support for BNP among female voters, with 71.1 percent of women respondents expressing support for the party.

Regionally, BNP-led alliance support was highest in Chattogram (76.8 percent) and Sylhet (75.6 percent). In contrast, the Jamaat-led alliance showed strong performance in Barishal (17.8 percent) and Khulna (18.6 percent). In the northern district of Rangpur, the Jatiya Party received 3 percent voter support.

Seat Projections

Based on constituency-level analysis, the survey projects the following seat distribution:

• BNP-led alliance: 208 seats

• Jamaat-e-Islami–led alliance: 46 seats

• Jatiya Party: 3 seats

• Other parties: 4 seats

• Independent candidates: 17 seats

Additionally, 22 constituencies are expected to witness closely contested races, described as “closed contests” in the survey.

Government Formation Expectations

EASD’s findings indicate that 66.4 percent of respondents believe the BNP-led alliance will form the next government. Similarly, 66.3 percent expressed confidence that BNP candidates would win in their respective constituencies.

The survey also suggests a significant political shift among former Awami League voters. According to Shamim Haider Talukder, 80 percent of respondents who previously voted for the Awami League now intend to vote for BNP. Meanwhile, 15 percent of former Awami League voters expressed support for Jamaat-e-Islami, and the remaining 5 percent favored other political parties.

Preferred Prime Ministerial Candidate

When asked about their preference for the next prime minister, 68 percent of respondents supported BNP Chairperson Tarique Rahman. Fourteen percent favored Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman, while 2 percent supported NCP Convener Nahid Islam. The remaining 16 percent chose not to express any preference.

Discussion Panel

The event was chaired by Kazi Saifuddin Ben Noor, Adviser to EASD. Following the presentation, a panel discussion was held with participation from prominent academics and experts, including:

• Prof. Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, University of Dhaka

• ASM Amanullah, Vice-Chancellor, National University

• Shamsul Alam Selim, Chairman, Department of Government and Politics, Jahangirnagar University

• Prof. Nahreen I. Khan, Jahangirnagar University

• Dr. Toufique Joarder, National University of Singapore

• Mir Nadia Nivin, former member of the Electoral System Reform Commission

Overall, the survey reflects growing public expectation for political change and indicates strong momentum in favor of the BNP-led alliance in the upcoming election.