With the interim government banning the Awami League’s political activities on charges of genocide and the Election Commission suspending its registration, the party remains barred from participating in the upcoming national polls scheduled for early February. The absence of the country’s largest political party has left a vacuum on the electoral field, prompting other parties to devise strategies to attract Awami League’s traditional vote base. The key question dominating political discussions now is: Where will the Awami League’s votes go in its absence?
Analysts Point to the Jatiya Party as Primary Beneficiary
Political observers believe that the Jatiya Party (JP), which has historically maintained a close relationship with the Awami League since the mid-1980s, stands to benefit the most. For the past 15 years, JP and the Awami League maintained an alliance, sharing both power and opposition roles. JP leaders have even suggested that “clean-image” Awami League members, free of cases or violence-related allegations, may be welcomed into their party and awarded nominations to secure the AL vote bank.
Analysts describe this as a tactical move to attract Awami supporters, many of whom are reluctant to shift allegiance to BNP or Jamaat-e-Islami due to decades of political rivalry.
Limited Scope for BNP and Jamaat
Although BNP and Jamaat hope to attract Awami voters, experts argue that deep-rooted animosity makes this unlikely. Awami supporters, long accustomed to voting for the “Boat” symbol, are not expected to cast ballots for BNP, which spearheaded the movement that forced the Awami League government out of power. Similarly, prospects for Jamaat are slim given its historical identity as a religion-based party and its controversial role in Bangladesh’s history.
However, a small portion—between 1% and 3% of Awami voters—may side with BNP or Jamaat, primarily to protect business interests or avoid political harassment.
Possible Shifts to Left Parties
If JP is somehow sidelined from the electoral contest, analysts predict that Awami voters may shift toward candidates of left-leaning parties within the 14-party alliance or the broader 12-party coalition. Yet, these parties’ limited organizational strength means they are unlikely to absorb Awami League’s large voter base effectively.
Academic Perspectives
Dhaka University professor Dr. Kazi Md. Mahbubur Rahman emphasized the longstanding Awami-Jatiya Party bond, dating back to Awami League’s participation in the 1986 one-sided election that gave legitimacy to Ershad’s rule. He argued that this enduring alliance increases the likelihood of Awami supporters leaning toward JP in 2025.
Dr. Dilara Chowdhury, political scientist at Jahangirnagar University, highlighted the significance of Awami League’s vast vote bank, particularly in urban areas and among professional classes. She noted that more than 35 million young voters will play a crucial role. According to her, both BNP and JP are competing for Awami League’s support base, but JP remains the most likely recipient due to its historic ties.
She also pointed out that Jamaat has been making overtures to India and minority communities in a bid to attract Awami voters—an unusual strategy for the Islamist party. Still, she assessed their chances of success as limited.
Voter Sentiment
Many Awami League supporters themselves remain uncertain. Some suggest they may abstain from voting altogether, much like BNP did in boycotted polls of the past. Others acknowledge a “soft corner” for JP due to its long partnership with Awami League, but insist they will never cast ballots for Jamaat.
BNP, meanwhile, hopes that disillusioned Awami voters—particularly those unwilling to support JP—will eventually shift toward its candidates.
The Bottom Line
Bangladesh’s upcoming parliamentary election is set to take place without the Awami League on the ballot for the first time in decades. Political analysts agree that JP stands to gain the lion’s share of Awami votes, provided it remains in the race. If not, a fragmented distribution among leftist parties—and, to a limited extent, BNP—appears likely.